What will move the markets next week?
TARIFFS: China tensions remain on the top of the list—it’s the biggest wildcard in this whole scenario. Any escalation or retaliatory stance could inject fresh uncertainty and keep markets under pressure.
EARNINGS: After UNH debacle, NFLX kinda saved the day, but we still have TSLA and GOOG to deal with next week.
Fed Beige Book: The Fed’s Beige Book, which is usually a relatively benign event, is likely to carry more weight this time around as tensions around rate policy resurface. With Trump reigniting his public feud with Powell and calls for rate cuts creeping back into the headlines, market participants will be looking closely at the Fed’s tone to gauge how unified or divided the central bank may be heading into the next FOMC meeting.
We had a compressed week last week, so we didn’t get to witness “The Netflix Effect” on the markets Friday since everything was closed. But amid all the doom and gloom—with UNH dropping a bomb, tariff uncertainty lingering, and volatility running wild—NFLX stepped up Thursday evening with blowout earnings and strong full-year guidance. It’s quickly becoming a Wall Street darling and is now being touted as one of the most recession-proof names out there.
Given NFLX’s heavy weight in the Nasdaq, here’s my obvious prediction for Monday:
👉 We open green, and we stay green.
But before you start popping champagne, let’s get real—we’re still in a high VIX environment, which means knee-jerk reactions, violent swings, and unpredictable intraday moves are very much on the table. Monday and Tuesday might feel great, but then comes TSLA earnings Tuesday evening—and that’s where the real fireworks could begin. TSLA has been absolutely beaten down and is surrounded by some of the most extreme negative sentiment in the market right now.
Alphabet (GOOG) also reports Thursday after the close. The company is under fire with another antitrust lawsuit and is fighting hard to maintain its grip on the digital ad business—making this another must-watch Nasdaq mover.
Bottom line?
Enjoy the green if it sticks on Monday and Tuesday… but buckle up—this week’s calendar is stacked with market-moving events.
QQQ Analysis
We’ve been using QQQ as our benchmark to track this massive historical correction, as it has consistently served as the leading indicator. The two signals we’ve been watching closely are:
MACD (5,13,5)
Since the regular MACD is a lagging indicator, I introduced the concept of using a short-term MACD to generate earlier trading signals. This is one of the indicators Maya uses to identify early trade setups as well (What is Maya? Click to Read More).
When we see a bullish MACD crossover, it can be used as a signal to begin entering trades. However, because the short-term MACD is more sensitive to market noise and can produce false positives, proper trade management is key. The best practice here is to exit trades if the MACD crosses back down, indicating a possible reversal.
MACD (12,26,9)
This is the traditional MACD used by most market technicians to identify longer-term trends. While it’s slower to react (being a lagging indicator), it’s less prone to noise and produces fewer false signals.
The UNH earnings bomb last week definitely injected a fresh dose of volatility into the markets, but so far, the MACDs are holding strong with no clear signs of a trend reversal.
I rely on the fast MACD to spot early entries—it’s great for getting in ahead of the crowd—but I don’t use it to define trend changes. For that, I stick with the regular 12,26,9 MACD, which provides a more reliable view of the long-term trend. Stay focused on that for the bigger picture.
VIX- Dropping fast, but still very high!
The VIX is rapidly dropping, but let’s be real—it’s falling from stratospheric levels, so it’s all relative. We’re still elevated enough to expect knee-jerk reactions, wild pops and drops, and generally erratic price action.
What we don’t need right now is another UNH-style bomb. A steady, solid round of earnings is exactly what it’ll take to pull us out of this mess.
EARNINGS
All the big banks and financial institutions have delivered a solid round of earnings, giving the market a strong foundation. But just as things were looking good, UNH crashed the party on Thursday—only for NFLX to swoop in and save the day.
It’s shaping up to be a nail-biter. A strong earnings season is the only thing keeping this market out of trouble right now, and every major report counts.
Trading plan for next week
NFLX is set to give the markets a nice boost on Monday (and hopefully carry some momentum into Tuesday). I’ll continue nibbling at trades as long as the setup looks clean.
However, if TSLA disappoints on Tuesday, that could shift sentiment quickly. In that case, I’ll pause trading until after GOOG earnings, reassess the landscape, and likely resume on Friday once the dust settles.
Maya – Algo Testing Updates
Maya is in good shape, and based on the logs from last week, she’s running smoothly—but still struggling to find clean trade setups with earnings season in full swing. A lot of potential trades are being filtered out due to upcoming earnings, which is exactly what she’s designed to do.
That said, Maya did flag some solid setups last week, including CRM, AVGO, and NVDA—and even went ahead and executed a trade on NVDA. So despite the noise, she’s staying selective and making smart moves.
