THIS IS A DELAYED TRADE FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY.
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As you know I don't trade earnings at all. In fact I try my best to stay away from stocks which have earnings in the next 30 days. But post earnings generates some really good opportunities.
Post earnings trades are very different than our regular mean reversion trades. These are actually continuation trades. Since, earnings causes a reset in the stocks price movement and its personality, you have to respect the direction in which earnings sends the stock price and have to find trades in the same direction.
If you haven't watched my video on Support & Resistance (https://tradingextremes.com/technical-analysis-3-support-resistance-post-earnings-trades/), I talk about post earnings trade in that video in detail. Basically, after earnings you get 1 or 2 opportunities to put on a trade in the original direction of the stocks price movement at earnings.
With BKNG, the post earnings reaction was really weird. Basically, there was no movement in the stock for upto 8 days. This was really unusual and confused me. In fact a few members asked me about any BKNG post-earnings trade, but I told them the stock is stuck in a range, so I am not taking any trades.
Finally, there was a huge spike 8 days later, which got my radars up and I started following BKNG for a pullback opportunity. It just kept going up and did not give us any opportunity. After hitting $1788, it started pulling back and I started watching it on a daily basis. Notice the red candles becoming smaller and smaller and also look at the yellow support line I have drawn. I was watching the stock to hit that support line and it gave us a beautiful opportunity today.
First off, you sir are a huge inspiration. I just finished your book for a 2nd time, I LOVE studying your trades. One think I can’t seem to figure out is why would a trader not just close a position as soon as the market price (in this trade example) is above $1630? My understanding is then you would close the position with 100% profits. Or am I missing something?
Hello, spreads don’t work like naked calls and puts. For spreads to be fully profitable the extrinsic value of the options needs to drain out first. Typically, ITM spreads close for a full profit between 5-10 days of the expiration date.